Saturday, February 18, 2012

Pirates acquire A.J. Burnett from the Yankees

Burnett is a pretty well-known pitcher, as he was a Yankee and also has had some remarkable seasons in years past. He performed at a low level last year, and the Yankees decided they did not want him in their rotation. They have been shopping him, and even had a deal set for him to go to LA to play for the Angels, but he invoked his no-trade clause, as he apparently had no desire to play for the Angels. He must have expressed interest in going to Pittsburgh, because the Pirates and Yankees agreed to a deal sending him to Pittsburgh yesterday. Barring anything shocking, the pitcher will be a Pirate soon enough.

This is a good deal for the Pirates. Although they are paying a LOT compared to what they would normally pay a player, the Yankees are still paying 20 million of the 33 million left on Burnett's current deal. And the Pirates only had to give up two prospects, prospects who I would name but none of you would care, as they are not even in the top 20 of the Pirates' current prospects.

This deal is great for two reasons: the first is that despite Burnett's relatively poor pitching last year, he will be facing completely different lineups this year while playing for Pittsburgh. What is even better for him is the fact that Pujols and Fielder are both out of the NL Central. He will be facing lineups with less sluggers and can hopefully be a solid pitcher for the Pirates. This is also good for the Pirates from a P.R. perspective. It will get fans excited about Burnett and will remind them of how well the Pirates were playing last season. Hopefully it will fill the seats and generate excitement for the Pirates this year that rivals that of last season and gets the city to support their baseball team like they did 20 years ago.

Mike Wallace... will he remain a Steeler?

Yesterday Adam Schefter and the rest of ESPN stumbled upon a bit of potential news that is indeed very shocking. Steelers game-changing WR Mike Wallace, a fan favorite and a hell of a deep threat, is a restricted free agent this season. While teams with restricted free agents of this high caliber can usually re-sign the players before they hit the market, the situation might be a little bit different for the Steelers right now. They are currently 11 million over the cap and will have to do a lot of creative moves relatively soon to sign him before other teams start to lure him away.

The idea behind this whole shocking revelation is that while the Steelers are already struggling to get under the cap, there are teams out there who do not have to worry as much. The new CBA enforced a rule that there are no more first or third round tenders for free agents. In the past, a team could put in a bid at a certain level and the currently owning team could match that offer or let the player go for the allotted draft pick. Now, to get Mike Wallace, a team would have to give up a first round pick. However, the way they could do it would make it so that the Steelers could not possibly attempt to match the offer because of their cap issues. Instead of putting a signing bonus in the contract that the Steelers would have to match to keep Wallace, the opposing team could sign Mike Wallace to a contract with a large roster bonus, where the cap hit is all in one year. This  would mean the Steelers would either have to let him go (and therefore receive someone's first round pick in the draft this year) or cut a LOT of players to both get under the cap and get far enough under to match that roster bonus cap hit.

This leaves one team extremely open to taking Wallace from the Steelers: the division rival Bengals. They have two first rounders this year thanks to their crafty trade of Carson Palmer to the Raiders, and they are currently a whopping 60 million under the cap. They could sign Mike Wallace to a deal with an extremely large roster bonus, one the Steelers could never match, and give up one of their first rounders. They would be left with two Pro Bowl WRs AND another first round draft pick as well as deal a huge blow to a division rival. Another team to watch would be the New England Patriots, who have two first rounders as well. But really, any team largely under the cap and with a first rounder could take Mike Wallace away from the Steelers.

That being said, the Steelers do not want to see Wallace go. They will try hard to keep him around. Schefter puts it at a "50-50" shot that someone makes a play on Wallace. Personally it is hard for me to sit here and look at the Bengals situation and think that they won't go after him. But perhaps they are satisfied with A.J. Green and their above average supporting cast of WRs and want to address other positions this offseason. Either way, this is an interesting situation to watch develop.

This also alludes to my year-old claim that there will be a shift of power in the AFC North in the coming years, with the Bengals regularly the team to beat. I have been saying it for a long time, and I will probably write a post about it in here in the coming months.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Jeremy Lin and the future of the Knicks

How interesting is the Lin story? It's like Tim Tebow, only even more lovable. If you're not into Linsanity then you are insane. With that being said, I had a conversation today that led to this post.

Today we are right in the middle of the 2012 season. I don't see the start of 2014 happening with Amar'e, Carmelo, and Jeremy all being Knicks. Here's why. Lin and Amar'e are destined to work well together as they are both heavily pick-and-roll players. Melo thrives in isolation. This provides a bit of a problem on paper. Combine that with the fact that Amar'e and Melo don't play well already (the Knicks are heavily in the negative point differential this season when both of them are on the court together) and it will be interesting to see how this goes when Melo comes back next week. Obviously all three of them can ball. One of them is going to have to take a Chris Bosh role and reduce productivity. Is it Melo, who would have to change his game to cope with this system, or one of the other two?

I see this going one of two ways: well or not-so-well. Either way, someone's productivity is going to take a hit. Melo has the most trade value. So is he the one gone by 2014? Or do they realize Amar'e's (is that correct? hahaha) knees are bad and then deal him and leave two less compatible players on the team? It really just comes down to how it all works out, but Lin will stay. He is on fire without the other two, and the Knicks saw their record without Lin playing and while the other stars were on the court: terrible. Add to it the fact that 2012 is all about point guards and Lin stays in New York for a while. It will be fun to watch his career blossom and see how his rise to stardom sends another star away from New York.

Peyton Manning and how he affects the league

I alluded to this on my Facebook earlier today, but my belief is that Manning will be in a Colts uniform next year, and most likely until he retires. Before I get started, let's assume this: Andrew Luck WILL be a Colt as well. They will use the no.1 pick on Luck and it might be tempting to make him the starter throughout training camp. Luck has a very bright future, but I don't see him starting with Peyton in the mix. Peyton does not want to go anywhere. He is going to be 36 soon. His whole career has been played in Indianapolis. The last thing he wants is to have to move to another city, learn another system (even though the system will have to learn him just as much), and deal with a different team. He will sign a deal with the Colts with a modest base salary and a lot of incentives. This allows the Colts to make sure he still has it without paying him a large amount of money.

Peyton said in November that he did not think the Colts should pay him the 28 million if they did not get a chance to see him play before them. He knows he needs to prove that he can play. He will gladly take less to stay in Indianapolis and win another Super Bowl for the city he has played for since his entrance to the league. And Luck with learn at an NFL level by watching one of the best QBs of all time play the game. In two or three years Manning will retire and Luck will take the throne, much like Aaron Rodgers did in Green Bay a few years ago.

This means that Matt Flynn will land in Miami. He follows Green Bay's former OC, Joe Philbin, to Miami, where he will be handed the starting job despite the illusion of a quarterback position battle.

This leads me to my next point: the Jets (who have been rumored to be contenders for a new QB this offseason) will NOT attempt to find a starting-caliber QB before the start of the 2012 season, barring injury to Sanchez. Rex Ryan is bullheaded and loves Sanchez. Mark is the man in NYJ territory, at least this year.

So then the other teams rumored to pursue Manning or Flynn will be out of luck. Arizona will not pursue anyone else; they gave up a lot to get Kolb and you would have to be crazy if you think they are going to give up on him after an injury-plagued season where he had very, very limited time to learn the offense. Remember, he came from Philadelphia in a trade AFTER the lockout already shortened training camp and the offseason. Washington and Seattle still might make plays for starting QBs, and with some interesting names potentially hitting the market (Orton, Campbell, and Young, just to name a few notables) it will be fun to see the opening-day starters next season.

Oh, and there is NO WAY Alex Smith leaves SF or Brees leaves NO. Don't be stupid.

2011 NFL Wrap-Up

I am a little bit disappointed that I didn't get around to making a pre-playoffs post of all of my picks, but I guarantee I would not have had the Giants going as far as they did. It was definitely a fun playoffs to watch, especially with Tim Tebow getting a victory over such a proud franchise in the first round. I am looking forward to the offseason and next year.

As I look back over my preseason predictions, I am proud of picking the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. They didn't win it, but they were in it, making my AFC prediction right. I can live with that. In fact, my AFC predictions were almost completely right, with all of the teams in the playoffs or in contention. The Chargers even had a chance to get the division berth at the end there, they just didn't follow through completely with their late-season revival and hot streak.

My views on the NFC were a bit more jacked up, but that is just the way I like it. The NFC threw a lot of people for a loop, especially the 49ers. Their deep playoff run was impressive and gives us something to look forward to next year out of an otherwise unimpressive division. The Seahawks are definitely a team to keep on the radar, however. I will be watching them more closely than other teams this offseason as I believe they can build a solid contender in Seattle.

With all that, I am going to try to blog a little bit more these days and hopefully focus on sports that are not football a little bit more. Assuming I get this going strong again, it would be great if you would share my blog to others and even comment on stuff. I would love to get some feedback and some discussions going. Thanks a lot guys.