Last year I successfully picked the Packers in the preseason as my Super Bowl Champions. This year I hope to flex my sports muscle again and pick the team that will win it all. Here goes nothing.
AFC
Division Champs:
North: Steelers
South: Texans
East: Patriots
West: Chargers
-In the North, the Steelers look poised to dominate. I have been picking the Ravens for years, and every time I do, they fall short of my expectations. This year they look worse than they did last year, having gained little and only gotten older. That is exactly the same case with the Steelers. The Steelers are a team who know how to win. They shock me year after year. Their luck has to run out eventually, and it did last season, when they actually came up short in the big game for the first time in three attempts and only the second time in their franchise history, despite their trophy case filled with six Lombardis. They will win this division, but I'm not sure how I feel about their ability to go all the way this year. The Bengals are in shambles, having lost their franchise QB, their two stud WRs, and one of the better CBs in the league. Look for them to be near the top of the race for Andrew Luck. They will look like the Panthers of this past season, who drafted Clausen in the 2nd round and then took Cam Newton first overall the next year. Dalton has a lot to prove to try to win enough games to maintain both his own status as "Bengals QB of the future" and also to keep his team above dead last so Mike Brown isn't tempted to take Luck. The Browns are actually a little scary; they have a good RB in Peyton Hillis, a QB with a lot of promise in Colt McCoy, and a new head coach who knows how to win. They won't be a major factor this year, but the Ravens and Steelers are only getting older, and the Browns might be a force to be reckoned with in 2012 and beyond.
-Much like the Ravens, I have been picking the Texans for at least two years. That has bitten me in the rear. They started last season strong, then hit the brakes hard. However, amid reports that Peyton Manning might need a third surgery and may miss significant time this season, the division is now up for grabs. The Titans are slightly in position to take it, now that Matt Hasselbeck has made his way out of Seattle and into Tennessee. But the Titans just don't have enough to match up against the Texans. The Colts are nothing without Peyton, and I am going to predict that even if he just misses two to four weeks, they will not win the division, and probably won't make the playoffs. The Texans added necessary parts, such as Wade Phillips at Defensive Coordinator, and Jonathan Joseph at CB. Wade's new 3-4 defense, with Mario Williams moving from DE to OLB, looked sharp this preseason. The offense remains one of the most explosive and intriguing in the entire NFL, with Schaub under center and Andre Johnson and Arian Foster being two of the top players at their position. However, look for Arian Foster to have less of a fantastic year; he lost his fantastic lead blocker, FB Vonta Leach, to the Ravens in free agency.
-The Patriots looked so good last year that I couldn't believe they lost in the playoffs, period. Steelers fans should be thankful that the Jets made their path to the Super Bowl a lot easier than it would have been; everyone knows the Steelers always blow it against the Patriots, even in years when the Pats aren't incredible in all aspects of the game. The only real thing the Patriots don't have going for them is a go-to RB, but that works incredibly well with their pass-first system and is basically a non-factor anyway. Their defense is a little bit scant in some areas as well, but they must know what they are doing if they decided to cut Pro Bowler (and notorious headhunter) Brandon Meriweather. They have added depth at WR (enough so to cut Brandon Tate) and took a chance, and a good one at that, on Albert Haynesworth at DT. I don't see them making the same mistakes in the playoffs as they did last year. As for the rest of the division, the Jets' loud-mouth head coach Rex Ryan claims "this is the best team I have had as a head coach." Well, Rex, you have been a head coach for two full seasons, so that can't be that hard. And considering the fact that your fashion model QB (see GQ, summer 2011) has only gone backwards in productivity and your RBs are little more than old legends out of gas and young gambles gone wrong, I'd say that your offense isn't quite where it needs to be to win the big one. Don't get me wrong, I am high on Holmes and Burress, and Mason was a great addition at WR, but when you had a younger yet still more proven set of WRs last year, you didn't win it all. Good luck congratulating all two other members of Revis Island (Mayor Bloomberg and Mr. Revis himself) on that shiny Defensive Player of the Year award, but I'm gonna say it'll be hard to break the news to them that you have failed to even make the AFC Championship, let alone lose it for a third consecutive year.
Now that I have gotten that out of my system, let's recognize that the Bills are making the right moves but still headed nowhere. Releasing players that are total busts is a great thing to do. Sticking with Fitzgerald at QB was great, for now. Losing the underproductive Lee Evans was great; he was a great WR in a terrible situation. Your WRs look great now too. However, there are still major flaws in just about every spot on the depth chart. My heart wants you to win games, Buffalo, but you are going to need Tom Brady to retire and Revis to take money elsewhere to get back in the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are always one of those "which side of the middle ground will they be on this year?" teams. Honestly, it doesn't matter. Point is, they are going to miss the playoffs. They should have tried harder for Kyle Orton or a different QB. I admire them for sticking with Henne though; he had a great preseason. However, when making decisions, I tend to base them on LAST year's performance, and not the performance of the upcoming preseason that I haven't witnessed yet. Good try though. Your franchise has less changes to make than the Bills to become relevant, but I don't think that time is near enough yet to matter, other than to upset a few big teams in the regular season.
-The West is filled with mediocrity. It's hard to look the Chargers in the eye and tell them that they are not going to win the division. With Rivers under center and Vincent Jackson back and ready to wreck defenses and opposing fantasy teams, this team looks good. I don't like their RB system only because I feel like they don't know who they like more. Tolbert and Mathews are both great, but I wish they would use one as a game-breaker and the other as the 3/4ths of the time guy. When used properly, they could have something great going on. But I don't think that they are prepared to have that great thing just yet. Their defense is always pretty good, and it might take a step down this year, but you don't need a stellar defense in the AFC West. The Chiefs had a great season last year, and the reality is that perhaps they should have that again. Their running game can only get better after adding FB galore Le'Ron McClain, but they really need to use Jamaal Charles more. They could drive defenses insane with a mix of power with McClain and Jones and speed and shiftiness with Charles and McCluster. I just don't really like Todd Haley as a head coach. He is doing it wrong, somewhere. I like the addition of Steve Breaston, and their defense has quite a few standouts, but I just feel like Haley is the reason they will blow it. The Broncos shouldn't have been quite as bad as they were last year, but their season was a total failure. Von Miller is going to be amazing for them, but they didn't do enough in the offseason to be considered a threat at all. And the Raiders are back to being the Dolphins of the West: which side of the NFL will they be on, the upper half or the lower half? Don't matter, they are going to finish right in the middle of the pack.
Wild Cards:
Ravens
Jets
-Although this may depend on when Manning comes back, these are the easy choices to make, basically because these are teams ready to win, but with great teams in their division. The Chiefs should be on the radar, but the Ravens and Jets are built to win now, at least enough to make it to the playoffs as wild cards then bite the inevitable "we aren't good enough to hang" bullet.
NFC
Division Champs:
North: Packers
South: Falcons
East: Eagles
West: Rams
-The Packers play in a good division. They also made it to the Super Bowl last year with 15 players on IR. They know what they are doing. They have a good competition going in the backfield, with James Starks pushing Ryan Grant. That will help their overall productivity. The don't need to run the ball very often anyway, because their passing game is still led by superstar QB Aaron Rodgers. Their WRs haven't changed, and their defense remains solid enough to more than support the offense. The will need to prove themselves early in division play though, because everyone else has a reason to beat them, and all three teams have the potential to do it. I like the Bears a whole lot. Matt Forte is incredible, but he isn't an every-down back. Marion Barber is exactly what they needed. He runs hard and plays physical and will give a dimension to their ground game that was desperately needed. Roy Williams playing in Mike Martz's offense again is a real threat, and with Johnny Knox only getting better, the only real question in their passing game is whether or not Jay Cutler can stay accurate. I'm pretty sure even I can get through a game at QB without throwing four interceptions to the same player. Especially when that player is DeAngelo Hall. The best part about the Bears remains their Urlacher-led defense. They are built to play in all situations and will be the biggest factor in whether or not they win. The Lions are such a great team. Their potential is through the roof. If Stafford stays healthy, I see them as a wild-card team. Their offense is filled with young, incredible talent, and their defense is filled with both young studs (Whaddup Ndamukong Suh) to underrated veterans such as Steven Tulloch and Kyle Vanden Bosch, both Tennessee LB outcasts. The real loser in this division is the Vikings, who are missing both Williamses in the first two weeks and really have very little going for them other than Adrian Peterson. Donovan McNabb might end up being a great stopgap before Christian Ponder needs to step up to the plate, but losing Sidney Rice was terrible for them. Their defense still looks alright on the surface, but needs to mesh together like they did two seasons ago in order for them to slow the great offenses in their division.
-The South looks great. All of the teams that aren't located in North Carolina are in the playoff hunt. A lot of people have been picking the Saints to go to and/or win the Super Bowl. I don't really see that happening. They have a great team. But the Falcons seem better to me. Adding Julio Jones was by far the best moment of the draft, and it was also the right thing for that team to do. Giving the team a fantastic receiving threat opposite superstar Roddy White was essential this offseason. It will be hard for people to cover White, Jones, future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and speedster Harry Douglas all at the same time. Oh yeah, while trying to worry about carrying machine Michael Turner at the same time. Matt Ryan goes to bed every night with a smile on his face. The Falcons still have a solid defense on their side, and a reliable kicker in Matt Bryant. The NFC may go through Atlanta this year. Another team that has incredible potential is Tampa Bay. It will be tough for them to win games against the Saints, who still have Drew Brees and a plethora of receiving threats and great RBs. The Tampa defense is their weak spot, mainly because they play against such amazing offenses. But Josh Freeman is a superstar in the making. He can run, he can pass, he can lead. My feel-good player of the year is definitely Josh Freeman. His team also has LeGarrette Blount and Earnest Graham in the backfield and a great corps of young WRs for Freeman to throw to. Having Kellen Winslow at TE helps a lot too. Their offense does not need work. Their defense is above average. If they played in the NFC West, they would be going 6-0 in the division. Unfortunately for them, they don't, and must ward off great teams and will struggle to survive. As for the Panthers, Cam Newton will be fun to watch develop in the NFL. I feel bad for Steve Smith, but at least he made money throughout his career. If I was a Carolina fan, I would sit around in my tear-stained Julius Peppers jersey all day while crying and remembering better days.
-The NFC East. Home of my Eagles. You know I'm gonna tell you that they are fantastic. They added the right pieces on defense; it will be hard to pass against Nnamdi Asomugha AND Asante Samuel AND Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. However, their defense is young at LB and safety, which might be a little rough if they can't buckle it down. Their defensive line looks great though, having added D-line coach Jim Washburn and great linemen Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin. Their offense would be ridiculous if there wasn't a huge question mark at O-line. With a great offensive line, they would be perhaps one of the best offenses in recent years. Their WR depth is great; deep threat Desean Jackson, go-to guy Jeremy Maclin, Pro Bowler Steve Smith, third-down man Jason Avant. Their running backs look great as Shady McCoy has that big-play ability on every down, Ronnie Brown will step in and pound the ball, and Dion Lewis is a great guy to come in and give Shady a breather. Brent Celek remains one of the better receiving tight ends in the league. And in case you are worried about fantasy maniac Michael Vick getting hurt any time soon, don't be, because the quarterback with the highest passer rating in 2010 is backing Vick up. This team WILL win the division. The Giants look like a nice second-place team, although the Cowboys might have something to say about it. The Cowboys don't have enough depth at RB in my opinion, nor is their defense getting any better. Their biggest threat is their passing game, and with Romo at QB, it's mediocre. The Giants will miss Umenyiora for as long as he is out, and losing Kevin Boss was terrible. Steve Smith jumping ship for their division rival didn't help either. They will have a lot to prove if they want to make it to the playoffs. As for the Redskins, they will be in a tight race with the Bengals to win the rights to Andrew Luck. They don't have a lot going on for them. Their RBs are all half-decent. Their QB situation is ugly. Their defense is probably better without Haynesworth, but still either old or sub-par. They don't have hope in 2011.
-The NFC West is a craphole. The Seattle Seahawks actually managed to make it to the playoffs with a losing record. This year will be different for two reasons: The Rams will do slightly better, allowing them to take their mediocrity into the playoffs, and the Cardinals now have Kevin Kolb, a man with a losing record as a starter but who isn't named Anderson or Skelton. The Cardinals defense is abysmal, however, and will likely get burnt even by Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks. The Rams only have to suffer through getting obliterated by the AFC North in order to win almost all of their division games and skate into the playoffs. I do want to add, however, that the 49ers have slight potential under Jim Harbaugh. He might be able to spark Alex Smith enough to win games. Frank Gore is a great running back, Braylon Edwards was a nice pickup, and they still have a defense led by Patrick Willis. Their defense is somewhat underrated. Watch out for them, as only a few things need to happen for THEM to be the 7-9 team to make the playoffs in 2011.
Wild Cards:
Saints
Lions
Yeah, I know. There's a lot of other teams I could pick here. It would be easy to say the Bears are going, or the Bucs, or even the Giants. But I honestly believe that Stafford will easily lead the Lions into a wild-card spot if he stays healthy. The NFL is not ready for a healthy Stafford. No one truly realizes what he can do, what that team can do. They will find a way to sneak into the playoffs. The Saints are one of those definite picks. Easy choice. But the Saints need to watch out for teams such as the Lions, as I feel like the Saints are high on themselves and might screw it up again this year, just like they did last year against the worst team to ever make the playoffs.
2011 Playoff Picture
NFC Championship: Falcons over Saints
AFC Championship: Patriots over Steelers
Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots over Falcons
-The more I simply look into football, the more respect I have for Belichick, other than the fact that he is a cheating pile of crap. But he knows how to get it done even without Spygate, which is why I don't hold that against him as much as I should. It would hurt me to see the Patriots win the Super Bowl, but they have a team ready to do it. However, the rest of the AFC looks ready to lose hard against the NFC in the Super Bowl, so if the Pats somehow blow it, I can see the Falcons or really any of the NFC playoff teams winning it. It should be a great year, and I can't wait to see how it kicks off tomorrow night in what should be a great match-up.
